Even Gov. Charlie Crist, who helped deliver Florida for McCain during the primary, said he will be spending more time minding the state's weak economy than campaigning for the Arizona senator in the final weeks before Election Day.

''When I have time to help, I'll try to do that,'' Crist said last week, after he flew around the state with McCain running mate Sarah Palin. Saturday, he skipped a McCain football rally and instead went to Disney World.

Senior members of the Republican party are in open mutiny against John McCain's presidential campaign, after a disastrous period which has seen Barack Obama solidify his lead in the opinion polls.

...snip...

From inside and outside his inner circle, Mr McCain is being told to settle on a coherent economic message and to tone down attacks on his rival which have sometimes whipped up a mob-like atmosphere at Republican rallies.

Original DVD cover.

Two former rivals for the party nomination, Mitt Romney and Tommy Thompson, went on the record over the weekend about the disarray in the Republican camp. And a string of other senior party figures said Mr McCain's erratic performance risks taking the party down to heavy losses not just in the presidential race but also in contests for Congressional seats. Mr Thompson, a former governor of the swing state of Wisconsin, said he thought Mr McCain, on his present trajectory, would lose the state, and he told a New York Times reporter he was not happy with the campaign. "I don't know who is," he added.

Some Republicans seeking election to Congress have begun distancing themselves from Mr McCain. In Nebraska, a Republican representative, Lee Terry, ran a newspaper ad featuring support from a woman who called herself an "Obama-Terry voter".

From The Trail at The Washington Post:

CHICAGO -- Falling behind in a sheaf of polls amid one of the nastiest campaigns in the country, Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) announced today that he will unilaterally disarm: He will pull his negative advertising and urge his supporters to do the same.

At a St. Paul press conference, the onetime Democrat-turned-Republican sounded as though he was channeling Sen. Barack Obama, who has taken a strong lead in Minnesota polls.

...snip...

Coleman told reporters that he would not be appearing at a planned rally with McCain this afternoon. Could it be McCain's sliding polling numbers in Minnesota? His attacks on Obama? Coleman said he needs the time to work on suspending his own negative ads.

From The Miami Herald:

For the first time in more than a decade, Florida Republicans are considering the almost unthinkable: Their presidential nominee could lose the state.

The economy, an unpopular president, a strong opponent, and the inability of John McCain to reverse poll numbers despite repeatedly revising his strategy has top state Republicans looking for someone to blame.

''There are a lot of folks who have never been in a foxhole before and are clearly nervous,'' said Brian Ballard, a major McCain fundraiser. ``There is some finger-pointing going on a little bit too soon.''

Even Gov. Charlie Crist, who helped deliver Florida for McCain during the primary, said he will spend the final weeks before Election Day minding the state's weak economy rather than campaigning for the Arizona senator.

''When I have time to help, I'll try to do that,'' Crist said last week, after he flew around the state with McCain running mate Sarah Palin. Saturday, he skipped a McCain football rally and instead went to Disney World.

• Newsweek's Isikoff: TrooperGate not over yet.  The McCain-Palin campaign had Palin file a complaint against herself so that a state personnel board under the governor's authority would have jurisdiction over the TrooperGate scandal.  But the board hired an independent investigator who has a tough reputation and donated to Palin's opponent in her 2006 campaign for governor.  Oops.  His report is due in a couple of weeks.
• London Times: McCain and Palin reportedly disagree over decision to launch nuclear strategy.
• Miami Herald.  Florida GOP getting very upset as state begins to slip away from them.  Governor Crist is suddenly too busy to campaign with McFailin in the critical last three weeks remaining.
• Haven't had a chance to read the lengthy TrooperGate Report? Hilzoy at Obsidian Wings offers an excellent summary and analysis.
• BBC News:  Head of IMF says world's financial system is teetering on "brink of systemic meltdown."
• LA Times.  Obama's consistent, rational and calm response to the economic crisis has been in stark contrast to McCain's erratic flailing, and McCain is sinking in the polls as a result.
• Philly Inquirer.  Obama is running away with Pennsylvania.
• NY Times:  Nagourney and Busmiller get the inside scoop and learn that even the GOP finds McCain dangerously erratic.  Many are concerned that his impulsive and contradictory actions have him on an irrevocable path to defeat.
• McCain again forced to rebuke one of his hate rally surrogates for (in this case, religiously bigoted) remarks.
• NY Times:  Sarah Palin drops ceremonial puck on center ice at a Philadelphia Flyers home game Saturday night and gets "greeted by resounding (almost deafening) boos from the Flyers crowd."  Wilmington News & Journal says she was greeted with an "avalanche of boos" and there's no doubt the team's management ordered up the volume of the arena's music to drown out the boos.
• Daily Tracking Polls. Research 2000 poll has Obama hitting his highest point, +13, 53-40%.  Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby poll opens to its widest margin for Obama since new poll was launched last week , +6, 49-43% among likely voters, affirming trend seen in other tracking polls.  Rasmussen has Obama +6, 51-45%.  Gallup has Obama's lead narrowing slightly, +7, 50-43%.
• Chris Buckley, son of William F. Buckley and writer for the National Review, endorses Obama for president, his first time pulling the lever for the Democratic candidate in his life.  Why?  Because McCain has gone off the deep-end and Obama is a first class intellect and temperament.
• Paul Harris/The Guardian (UK). Sarah Palin has been a drag on the ticket for several weeks, and the latest TrooperGate scandal's report is a devastating final blow, undermining any case for her being a fresh reform-minded maverick. Instead, she's just another a petty, power-hungry pol.

• WaPo:  Bill Clinton to campaign for Obama in rural Virginia.
• Poll: Obama's popularity among Hispanic voters much higher than Kerry's was, while McCain's is much lower than Bush's, in four critical swing states: Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
• WaPo examines the candidates' ground game, now getting deployed for GOTV.
• Frank Rich voices his disgust at the dangerously heated rhetoric employed by McCain and Palin on the trail directed at Obama.
• NY Times:  McCain's penchant for "embracing opposites" might strike his ardent supporters as evidence of being a maverick, but others see an erratic opportunist.

Budget gap (as a % of the total budget): 19.9%
Gap: $5.1 billionThe $66 billion Florida budget for the coming year is about $6 billion less than the one approved the previous year. It includes a $332 million reduction in public school spending and cuts to state hospitals, nursing homes, and various social programs.

The harsh reality became clear to me this week when I enquired at the University of North Florida (Jacksonville) about the possibility of returning to school to complete an Economics Degree.  According to the school, they are "currently not accepting any Post-baccalaureate students because of state budget cuts."

Welcome to the Sunshine State.

I know, I know. Sounds amazingly paranoid, but hear me out (or actually read me out) on this one…

A Word About Our Dependence on Foreign Oil

The United States currently consumes around 20 million barrels of oil every day, accounting for roughly 45% of worldwide oil consumption. Current U.S. crude oil production is 5.1 million barrels a day and declining, and a little known fact is that U.S. crude oil production peaked in 1970 at 11.4 million barrels a day. What the rhetoric around upping our domestic supply fails to address is that, even if the United States were to tap all available options, production increases will have little to no effect on our dependence on foreign oil. However, increasing production will certainly improve U.S. oil company profits, since prices will be maintained because of the lack of change in supply.

The two options discussed for increased domestic production are 1) increased offshore drilling and 2) opening up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR):

• Offshore Drilling: According to the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration, opening all offshore drilling (even in states that are currently expected to block offshore drilling, like California) will increase domestic oil production by up to 150,000 barrels per day beginning in 2020 and lasting through 2030.

• ANWR: ANWR has much greater production potential than offshore drilling. “The 1002 Report” by the United States Geological Survey expects ANWR could produce peak production of up to 1 million barrels a day.

Assuming domestic production from existing drilling locations does not decline (likely a bad assumption), the United States could reach 6.3 million barrels a day of production. Basically, since we consume 20 million barrels a day, in an oil-based economy, in an oil-based economy, we will remain almost completely reliant on foreign oil.

What Policies Increase Profits for Big Oil (Domestic and Foreign)?

As discussed below, McCain’s senior team includes lobbyists for both foreign and U.S. oil interests. Despite any claims to the contrary, U.S. oil companies do not benefit from a situation where all oil used in the U.S. is sourced domestically; quite the contrary, these U.S. companies would be put out of business if that were the case.

Since, as is discussed above, the U.S. does not have the reserves available to meet its own oil needs, a U.S. only oil supply means that demand for oil would decrease by roughly 70%. That in turn would result in a drastic decrease in prices, eroding U.S. oil revenues and profits. As oil prices in the U.S. eroded, we would be likely to then turn to the cheapest suppliers, like Canada (who is currently our largest supplier of oil) and prices would spiral down even further. As a U.S. company, my only hope is to maintain the status quo

With that in mind, I have provided a short list of the policies that most benefit Big Oil:

• Continued Oil Dependence (for as long as humanly possible): Simply put, oil suppliers to the United States, domestic and foreign, are dependent on the continuation of an oil-based economy. Oil for cars, heating, manufacturing, you name it.

• Continued Fixed Price per Gallon Gas Tax: For the first quarter of 2008, the average state gasoline tax is 28.6 cents per US gallon, plus 18.4 cents per US gallon federal tax making the total 47 cents per US gallon. Because the price per gallon is fixed, the profit margin of each gallon of gas increases as the price increases.

• Limited/No Carbon Emission Taxes: Taxes on the pollution from oil use decreases the profit margin for oil suppliers and potentially increases corporate investment, if pollution curbs are also required.

• Tax Benefits: Much of the drilling in the United States is done on federal land. In other oil producing nations, the government keeps around 60% of the revenues from the initial oil sale (the barrel of oil). After all, it is their land. In the U.S., that number is 40%. Not surprisingly, United States oil companies would like to see that number stay where it is.

• More Leases and Option to Hold Leases Indefinitely: U.S. oil and gas companies are sitting on 68 million acres of federal lands, both onshore and offshore, that are leased but sitting idle. Companies can lock up lands for 10 years with annual rents of only $2 to $3 an acre; the oil companies can count these leases as assets that can make debt refinancing easier while also attracting potential investors.

• Increases to Government Oil Reserves: The U.S. government currently holds an oil reserve of approximately 800 million barrels of oil, enough to cover roughly 20 to 30 days of U.S. consumption. The United States purchases oil for these reserves at market prices, increasing the demand and therefore price for oil using taxpayer dollars.

What Policies Does McCain Support?

Given the bent of this article, you will probably not be surprised to find out that John McCain supports each of the policies outlined above. What may surprise you is the extent to which he supports them and the cute ways he avoids voting on these issues so as to not appear too biased towards Big Oil:

• Continued Oil Dependence: According to the congressional record, when the vote came up to move $18 billion in oil subsidies to renewable energy, John McCain was the only Senator who missed the bill. Conveniently, the bill was defeated by one vote. On a similar vote of even more importance, John /McCain skipped a vote that would have increased fuel economy standards for cars, increase the use of biofuels by 2022, provide substantial tax incentives for alternative energy, and require that 15% of U.S. electricity be generated by alternative sources by 2020. The Republicans filibustered, but the Democrats reached out to Republicans to push it through. While the Democrats were close, to the 60 votes necessary to break the filibuster, the measure lost by one vote and McCain was the only Senator not to show up for the vote.

• Continued Fixed Price per Gallon Gas Tax: Just prior to this summer, John McCain supported a summer gas tax holiday for consumers. Because of universally accepted arguments of supply and demand, the tax would have no effect on the price of gas but would instead increase profits for oil companies. John McCain not only supported maintaining the gas tax – he tried to decrease it.

• Limited/No Carbon Emission Taxes: In 2007, according to the League of Conservation Voters, McCain voted in line with environmentalists zero times – that’s ZERO.

• Tax Benefits: Throughout his career, McCain has supported tax breaks and subsidies for big oil. In 2007, John McCain Skipped a vote to repeal the existing tax breaks for Oil Companies. Also in 2007, McCain was the only senator to miss a vote on the energy bill repealing tax subsidies for oil companies.

• More Leases and Option to Hold Leases Indefinitely: The currently proposed offshore drilling would open an enormous number of leases to oil companies, which could then claim those same leases as assets on their balance sheets.  Notably, on June 16 of 2008, John McCain publically renounced his opposition to offshore drilling. After this announcement, McCain's political committees and the Republican National Committee's joint fundraising account raised nearly $7 million from Texas donors. $1.3 million of that amount came within two days of McCain's announcement (i.e., June 16 and June 17).

• Increases to Government Oil Reserves: Historically, McCain has strongly opposed any use of the strategic oil reserves. In 2008, there was a vote of 97 to 1 to stop increases to the strategic oil reserves. Notably, John McCain was one of the two Senators who failed to show up for the vote.

McCain’s Staff and Backers

To say that McCain had strong ties to oil companies within his campaign staff and backers would be an enormous understatement. In fact, John McCain’s staff is filled with lobbyists and staff from big oil.

• Rick Davis – Campaign Manager: As part of his work as a lobbyist, Rick Davis was a registered foreign agent for the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Nigeria happens to be Africa’s largest oil producer and one of the largest oil producers in the world.

• Nancy Pfotenhauer – Economic Advisor: Prior to working for McCain, Ms. Pfotenhauer’s longtime boss has been Koch Industries, the nation’s second largest private company with $90 billion in annual revenues, primarily from oil. Pfotenhauer’s resume includes George Mason University (funded by Koch), Citizens for a Sound Economy (founded by Koch), Americans for Prosperity (founded by Koch), and the Independent Women’s Forum (funded by Koch). She also worked directly for Koch Industries as their top Washington lobbyist.  Americans for Prosperity notably grades lawmakers based on their support for offshore and ANWR (Alaska) drilling.

• Wayne Berman - National Finance Co-Chairman: Wayne Berman is the head of Ogilvy Government Relations and has a client list that includes Chevron, Texaco, and the American Petroleum Institute. His lobbying firms projects included the Alaska pipeline, oil and gas accounting, foreign tax credits, measures related to price gouging, offshore exploration, and the 2005 and 2007 energy bills.

• Thomas G. Loeffler, national finance co-chairman: Loeffler was John McCain’s initial campaign co-chairman but stepped down due to public reception over his ongoing lobbying activities. Thomas Loeffler, and his lobbying firm, The Loeffler Group, received over $15 million in fees from Saudi Arabia. As a lobbyist, he met with John McCain and the Saudi Arabian ambassador as recently as 2006.

• Charlie Black – Senior Adviser: Charlie Black (lobbying firm: BKSH), McCain’s senior campaign adviser, is a registered lobbyist for two Russian oil companies — Yukos Oil and Occidental International Corporation — and his lobbying firm was hired in 2005 by the China National Off-Shore Oil Corporation. Black Lobbied for Occidental Oil Co., earning Over $1 Million from the relationship. From 2001 until 2007, Black lobbied for Occidental Oil company, earning his firm over $1,610,000 for his lobbying efforts. Black’s company engaged in telephone calls and meetings attempting on behalf of foreign interests interested in acquiring U.S. based energy companies.

• Randy Scheunemann – Chief Foreign Policy Aide: McCain’s Chief Foreign Policy Advisor lobbied for Caspian Alliance which is the “Sole U.S. Representative” for Kazakhstan’s State-Owned Oil & Gas Company, KMG. From 2005 until the end of 2006, McCain’s chief foreign policy advisor Randy Scheunemann lobbied for the Caspian Alliance through his firm Scheunemann & Associates. Caspian paid Scheunemann between $40,000 and $50,000 to “monitor energy and foreign policy legislation and development that affects Caspian Alliance,” and to lobby on “issues concerning energy development in the Caspian region.”

The people listed above represent most of the top people from McCain’s campaign staff. In short, his campaign manager (Rick Davis) represents African oil, his economic adviser (Pfotenhauer) and National Finance Co-Chairman (Wayne Berman) represent U.S. oil, his senior adviser (Charlie Black) and Chief Foreign Policy Aide (Randy Scheunemann) represent Asian oil, and his former national finance co-chairman (Thomas G. Loeffler) represent Middle-East oil.

The Other Veep Contenders

From the oil industry’s standpoint, Palin had numerous advantages over the other potential picks, including her substantial relationships with Alaskan oil interests and oil company representatives. With the exception of Palin, each of the other potential VP candidates had heavily endorsed the pursuit of alternative energy.

• Mike Huckabee: In Huckabee’s words: “We will explore, we will conserve, and we will pursue all types of alternative energy: nuclear, wind, solar, ethanol, hydrogen, clean coal, biomass, and biodiesel. One of the biggest energy users in the whole country is the US government. If the government commits to being the primary user of alternative forms of energy, we have a market built in. Therefore, the big argument against having alternative energy is there's no market for it. Let the government be a marketplace and we'll create the kind of demand that lowers the price rather than raises the price.” Huckabee is a candidate who would excite the conservative base, has executive experience, and is extremely intelligent and eloquent…and a big fan of alternative energy.

• Charlie Crist: In Crist’s words “That's why I'm recommending a $200 million economic development package for solar, wind and other renewable energy, and to promote biofuels in Florida and encourage alternative fuels such as ethanol. We have the opportunity to enhance the use of this cleaner fuel, while also providing a broader market for sugar cane and citrus waste. [We have] explored non-food sources of ethanol production in Farm to Fuel efforts. I have proposed almost 70 million dollars in my budget to foster the development and use of alternative energy sources and fuels in our state, including ethanol and biodiesel fuels for our cars and solar power for our homes.” Another big fan of alternative energy.

• Joe Lieberman: In Lieberman’s words: “I submitted legislation that would impose a 50% Excess Profits Tax on oil companies for really undeserved profits and return that money to low- and middle-income consumers to help them pay bills. I'm now co-sponsoring a bill called Set America Free, which will reduce our consumption of oil by 10 million barrels a day. It would develop an American biofuels refinery and distribution network.” Not exactly a statement that would be welcomed with open arms by the oil companies.

• Tim Pawlenty: Pawlenty endorsed setting goal of 25% renewable energy by 2025; Advanced the Community Based Energy Development Tariff to encourage the development and use of locally owned wind and clean energy sources and established a goal of obtaining 800 megawatts of community based wind to be added to our electric system by 2010. Pawlenty has also lobbied the Governors' Ethanol Coalition to mandate higher ethanol use nationwide. A evangelical Christian, he also had enormous potential to excite the base. However, he goes further than most specific goals for the use of alternative energy.

• Tom Ridge: Tom Ridge, the former Secretary of the United States Department of Homeland Security and a former governor of Pennsylvania, sits on the board of Exelon, an energy company primarily supplying nuclear power and with numerous efforts in renewable energy (wind farms). As governor, Ridge provided millions of dollars of environmental grants to more than 200 local governments and organizations. His pro-choice views do not endear him to the base and his efforts around renewable energy do not endear him to big oil.

• Mitt Romney: In Romney’s words: “We spend about $4 billion a year right now on energy research to try and help us become less energy dependent on foreign sources. And I think over the coming years we need to increase our investment to become energy independent from about $4 billion a year to about $20 billion a year.” And yet another heavy supporter of alternative energy.

Sarah Palin and Her Views on Oil

Sarah Palin is about as pro-drilling a candidate for which any oil company could hope. Oil and gas production accounts for roughly 30% of Alaska’s Gross State Product (i.e., the equivalent of GDP), a number that does not include revenues derived indirectly because of oil and gas. Essentially, the livelihood of the entire state of Alaska is dependent on oil and gas, and that perspective has shaped Sarah Palin’s view of energy.

Palin favors more offshore oil drilling, wants greater exploration of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), and has stated in the past that she does not believe global warming has been caused by human beings: “A changing environment will affect Alaska more than any other state because of our location.  I’m not one though who would attribute it to being man-made.”

Despite her recent assertions that she is a proponent of alternative energy (as did George Bush before the 2000 election), her past statements push an oil only approach to energy, saying  “I beg to disagree with any candidate who would say we can't drill our way out of our problem” and that “alternative-energy solutions are far from imminent and would require more than 10 years to develop.”

In the past she has opposed a windfalls-profit tax on oil companies, which would have provided funding for renewable energy development (unless those windfall taxes went to Alaskans). Her only real push against oil companies has been to apply heavy Alaskan taxes and then provide additional payments back to consumers. Palin's administration recently gained legislative approval for a special $1,200 payment to every Alaskan to help cope with gas prices, which are among the highest in the country. However, she does not believe in spreading that type of relief to the rest of the country.

When it comes down to it, Palin is a self-professed fan of “Drill Baby Drill.”

When All is Said and Done

So what happens to these lobbyists and donors when the election is over? Does anyone honestly believe they will not go back to lobbying?

If John McCain and Sarah Palin are elected, the lobbyists will have managed the most successful lobbying effort of all time. They will have placed a pair of politicians in office with a mandate (i.e., crowds of thousands of people screaming “Drill Baby Drill”) that will make their clients billions upon billions of dollars. These same lobbyists will see their personal wealth shoot through the roof from new lobbying contracts, rewards for services rendered, and open access to the White House.

Furthermore, the focus on drilling vs. renewable energy will continue our existence as an oil dependent nation. They will not discourage us to slow imports of oil since the profit margin from imported oil is also substantial.

As a darling of big oil, Sarah Palin has become the perfect pawn in what could be the biggest lobbying coup of all time.

Appearing with Florida Governor Charlie Crist and Senator Mel Martinez, Sarah Palin greeted a crowd of over 8,000 enthusiastic supporters at an arena here who roared with support when she walked on stage and cheered at every jab she made at the Democratic ticket.

The Alaska governor previewed what the next month of the campaign will be like predicting that the race will get dirty as November 4th approaches, “You know from now until Election Day hang on to your hats because you know it may get kind of rough here in terms of campaigns having to step up and kind of take the gloves off and start telling the truth about what a candidate stands for,” Palin said.

She got a laugh when she said she would do her “best to keep giving material to Tina Fey to keep her in business.”

Palin also repeated her line of attack attempting to link Obama to 1960’s radical William Ayers, but taking it a step further accusing Obama of knowing about Ayers’ connections to the Weather Underground terrorist activities and questioning his judgment:

“Today they’re saying for the first time that Barack Obama didn’t know back then about Ayers’s radical background. But it was only a few months ago that Barack was saying Ayers was just a ‘guy in my neighborhood. But, wait a minute,” Palin said. “He didn't know a few months ago that he had launched his political career in the living room of a domestic terrorist?"

The Obama campaign has denied Palin's assertion that Obama and Ayers had a close relationship.

"You know, the experience that she comes from is what she’s done in government, and remember, Alaska is the closest part of our continent to Russia. It’s not as if she doesn’t understand what’s at stake here."

             That's like saying John McCain is an expert on US-Mexico relations because he's from Arizona, a border state. That's like saying Charlie Crist is an expert on Cuban relations because he is governor of Florida. That's like saying that I am an expert on Japanese relations because I can see the Nissan plant from my workplace. Really?! Really, John McCain?! 

             Thank you to SNL for bringing us the most perfect Sarah Feylin we could have ever asked for. 

             Also, check out E.J. Dionne's piece on media policing of Hillary's statements vs. near protection of Palin's lies.

"I'll support it, I'll vote for it, move on," Crist said Tuesday, according to the Orlando Sentinel. "It's not top-tier for me, put it that way."

The paper reports:

Crist's campaign skills might have helped the cause of Florida's social conservatives, like last winter when the governor appeared in TV ads and billboards to promote another amendment cutting property taxes. It passed.

But when asked if he'll spend time plugging Amendment 2, Crist said, "I don't think so. I think I will campaign for candidates much more extensively - Sen. McCain." The governor also reiterated his position of precluding the Republican Party of Florida from spending money to support the gay-marriage ban.

While gay marriage bans in nearly a dozen states were huge in bringing social conservatives to the polls in 2004, Florida is the only swing state with such an initiative this fall. And without Crist vocally campaigning for the amendment, it remains unclear what impact it will have.

Additionally, McCain has never aggressively campaigned on divisive social issues but with polls still showing him neck and neck with Obama in Florida, an active push for the ballot initiative could help increase turnout in the panhandle and other heavily conservative areas.

The GOP nominee will be hitting the Sunshine State early next week with planned stops in Jacksonville and Miami.

As Hurricane Ike barrels toward South Florida, Americans can be sure they won't have to endure another catastrophic failure of a hurricane protection system. That's because South Florida doesn't have a hurricane protection system. As South Floridians like to say: Ay dios mio! Ike is now scheduled to pass just south of Miami as a Category 4 storm; National Hurricane Center researchers recently concluded that a Cat 4 hitting Miami could cause $70 billion in damage. To use another South Florida-ism: Oy vey!

Dangling into the Gulf like a continental afterthought, Florida has always been Mother Nature's favorite American target, absorbing eight named storms in 2004 and 2005 alone. The state has gotten better at preparing for hurricanes, with stricter building codes and well-rehearsed evacuation plans. But it's still dangerously exposed — not only to the elements, but to financial ruin. It's got the nation's most dysfunctional property insurance market, a byproduct of life in harm's way. Fitch's ratings agency concluded in March that if a big storm hits Florida, "the fragile market could effectively collapse."

Ike could well be a Gustav-like bust rather than a Katrina-like disaster. But eventually, disaster will visit the peninsula, and it's still not clear who's going to pay the tab. "It's going to be a financial nightmare," says Cecil Pearce of the American Insurance Association. "Florida is the nation's basket case."

It's not that Florida's vulnerability is a secret. Florida homeowners pay some of the nation's highest insurance premiums; in a recent poll, despite a housing crisis, an economic crisis, a water crisis and an environmental crisis, Floridians named those premiums their number-two concern about the state's future, behind property taxes but ahead of jobs, education, health care and the dying Everglades.

Since Hurricane Andrew put most Florida insurers out of business and scared several national insurers out of the state, the state government has helped to hedge the risk of hurricanes. It provides subsidized insurance to 1.3 million high-risk homeowners who can't get private policies, an increase of more than 50% in just three years. It also has a Hurricane Catastrophe Fund that provides subsidized reinsurance to the state's private firms.

But a series of studies have made it clear that if the Big One or even a Pretty Big One strikes, Florida is going to have very serious problems. The state-run insurance firm and the Catastrophe Fund have just a few billion dollars on hand, so a major storm would force both entities to float massive bond issues in an unfavorable market, and to make up their shortfalls through gigantic assessments on policyholders. A House committee recently warned that the state would have "extreme difficulty paying its obligations" after a 100-year storm, and that premiums on nearly every property, car and business could skyrocket. A report for the state Office of Insurance Regulation found that even a 50-year storm would cause extreme financial stress, especially given the current credit crunch.

Industry actuaries say the problem is simple: Florida's insurance rates, high as they may be, are not high enough for a state with an estimated 25% of America's high-risk property. Reinsurance rates are soaring, and private insurers like State Farm and Allstate have scaled back in Florida, forcing an additional 500,000 customers into the state pool. "For some areas in Florida, insurance companies could not obtain reinsurance at any price," Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty recently told Congress. And last year, Republican Governor Charlie Crist pushed through reforms to decrease premiums, a politically popular move that will create even more pressure if disaster strikes. "I get the concerns," Crist recently told me. "But we're not going to stand for gouging."

The gouging fears are understandable; McCarty told Congress that some insurers have insisted on 25% profit margins, while using computer models that overstate risk. But no one denies that the risk is real: it's been 80 years since a major storm hit a major Florida city, but hurricane researchers have calculated that the next one could cause as much as $150 billion worth of damage. And Crist's reforms, while reducing premiums, included other changes that increased the risk that taxpayers and policyholders will have to bail out the Cat Fund. "The risk was removed from the insurers' portfolio and is now being supported by the people of Florida," McCarty explained.

That's why Crist and just about every other Florida politician is pushing for a national catastrophe insurance fund, which would shift some of that risk to federal taxpayers. But the idea is not so popular with other states, for the obvious reason that other states don't have as much risk. Florida has spent the last 80 years ignoring its vulnerability, developing its floodplains and shorelines, selling the dream of the Sunshine State to northerners and foreigners. But the day of reckoning will come.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Following on the heels of Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Hanna, Ike is currently moving west over the west-central waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Gustav barreled into coastal Louisiana on Monday as a Category 2 hurricane, following one of the largest evacuations in U.S. history, and leaving massive power outages in its wake. Hanna briefly became the fourth Atlantic hurricane of the season before slamming with deadly force into Haiti, where scores of people have died in recent flooding.

Hanna was downgraded to a tropical storm Tuesday as it moved on over the southeastern Bahamas and it is growing larger, but not stronger, as it moves north. "A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours," the National Hurricane Center said. Hanna is expected to strike somewhere in the Southeastern U.S. on Friday, and is currently on course to hit the U.S. in Virginia.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist issued a state of emergency on Tuesday and officials in South Carolina and Georgia said they were monitoring the situation from operation centers. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said FEMA officials were already preparing should Hanna hit the East Coast.

SAVANNAH, Ga. - Nervous residents rushed to buy plywood and generators while emergency officials in Georgia, Florida and the Carolinas weighed possible evacuations Tuesday as Tropical Storm Hanna shifted toward a tough-to-predict landfall along the southern Atlantic coast by the end of the week.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist declared a state of emergency as Hannah, downgraded from hurricane status Tuesday but with ample time to regain strength, began a turn to the northwest from the Bahamas. Emergency officials in Georgia and South Carolina went into 24-hour alert mode.

In Savannah, which hasn't seen a direct hit from a major hurricane in more than a century, Janey Miley took her 15-year-old daughter to Home Depot at lunchtime Tuesday for an impromptu lesson in hurricane preparedness.

They waited in a busy checkout line with a 5-gallon gas can, a circular saw and 10 sheets of plywood in case they needed to board up the windows of their home on nearby Tybee Island. A steady flow of customers pushed carts stocked with everything from batteries to 5,000-watt generators.

"We've never really bought plywood, but it seemed like maybe we'd better do it this time," said Miley, 43, who had also booked hotel reservations in Columbia, S.C., in case her family needed to evacuate.

The National Hurricane Center predicted Hannah would most likely come ashore as a hurricane between Friday and Saturday somewhere between the east coast of Florida and the North Carolina coast. Forecasts Tuesday showed the storm making landfall near the Georgia-South Carolina border.

Local emergency officials for Savannah and surrounding Chatham County urged residents to have an evacuation plan ready. But no decisions on voluntary or mandatory evacuations were expected before Wednesday.

Ken Davis, spokesman for the Georgia Emergency Management Agency, said Hanna's unpredictable path made it "a pretty difficult storm" for planners to gauge whether to order evacuations with just a day or two left to decide.

"We're getting closer and closer to the point where decisions have to be made," Davis said. "It's a fine line between calling an evacuation and crying wolf."

Davis said state officials were looking ahead to the possibility of turning Interstate 16 into a one-way escape route westward out of Savannah.

The highway bore the brunt of 2.5 million people fleeing Georgia, Florida and South Carolina when Hurricane Floyd menaced the coast in 1999.

The Georgia State Patrol has since equipped 115 miles of the interstate with orange-striped control gates, much like railroad crossing arms, that can be dropped at entrance ramps to block cars from traveling east during a one-way evacuation.

In Florida, where Hanna is the third storm to threaten in three weeks, Crist's emergency declaration allows the state to more easily mobilize employees, law enforcement personnel and other resources. The governor said residents should prepare for possible flash floods and winds up to 111 mph.

The state Emergency Management Division in South Carolina was monitoring Hanna closely around the clock, but spokesman Derrec Becker said it was too early Tuesday to call for residents to flee.

"At this time there is still so much level of uncertainty, what we're doing right now is simply paying attention to this storm," Becker said.

Meanwhile, college administrators at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, S.C., and Charleston Southern University watched the storm for a possible call on whether to cancel football games Saturday, coaches at both schools said.

The North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries asked fishermen to monitor Hanna and two other tropical storms — Ike and Josephine — developing far out in the Atlantic. It said fishermen should remove gear such as nets and crab pots from the coastal waters ahead of storms and check their own safety equipment.

FEMA regional administrator Phil May said the agency will send federal liaisons and disaster response teams to Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday to prepare for Hanna.

FEMA is already pouring supplies and resources, like search and rescue teams, into the region. And it's scrambling to move some supplies from the Gulf Coast back toward the Atlantic seaboard.

"We'll be moving things that may have been in position for Gustav back this way in case of Hanna," said May, who is based in Atlanta. "There's a lot of moving parts."

He said a team dispatched to Florida to deal with the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay will stay there to plan for Ike, which could threaten Florida after Hanna passes.

  One other Floridian mentioned by Roll Call-- Phil Handy, the former chair of the State Board of Education and an advisor on education issues to the campaign.

Gustav and storms that follow it this election year could energize a debate over whether the federal government should insure against extreme weather, and in effect subsidize coastal growth.

The topic is particularly sensitive because of hurricane-prone Florida's political importance. Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, supports the concept of the federal government becoming more involved in covering natural disasters, an idea championed by Florida's Republican governor, Charlie Crist. Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, has opposed it.

If Louisiana and its neighbors absorb big blows without buckling, that could undercut efforts to involve Washington by suggesting that states and insurers are successfully managing risk.

The nation is "one major storm" from a crisis, Ramani Ayer, CEO of Hartford Financial Services, said in an interview in August, before Gustav. "There's a lot of interest on [Capitol] Hill to want to do something."

The federal government already insures against flooding, and Washington's flood-insurance program ran up a $17 billion tab after Katrina. The federal government also began insuring against serious terrorist attacks this decade.

Will he need to resurrect the conservative image of "Chain Gang Charlie" as 2010 and re-election nears, or stick to the centrist leanings likely to play better for a national audience?

So far, the governor has seemed effortless in switching costumes.

He made conservatives giddy last week with his appointment of former U.S. Rep. Charles Canady, who helped prosecute then-President Clinton, to the Florida Supreme Court, while catering to left-leaning civil-rights groups with an executive order making it easier for ex-felons to register to vote.

Sarah Palin has been governor of a state with less than 700,000 people for less than two years. Before that, she was mayor of a town with just over 5,000 inhabitants. All of the Congressional districs in California have more people than Alaska. New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, San Jose, Detroit, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Francisco, Columbus and Austin all have bigger populations than Alaska. Fort Worth, where I live, probably has the same amount of people as Alaska and we consider ourselves a fairly small metropolis.

Also, Illinois is a much more diverse and dynamic state and being a state senator from Chicago is nothing to sniff at in the least. Obama has traveled the globe, met with world heads of state, visited Iraq, formed relations with many of the military's important leaders, understands Washington much better than Palin and easily has much deeper background in the issues facing a president than Palin.

Simply because Palin has been the "CEO" of a state is like offering up Palin's grape to compare to Obama's watermelon and say they're the same weight. When Conservatives and Republicans make this claim, they are lying - which is odd since they should know that baby jesus is listening and lying is a SIN.

In any case, Obama-Palin is the wrong comparison to make when assessing McCain's judgment regarding his VP pick. The correct comparison is of Palin against Mitt Romney, Joe Lieberman, Charlie Crist, Tom Ridge, Tim Pawlenty, Lindsay Graham, Kay Bailey Hutchison or a 100 other more-qualified Conservative Republicans who would make immeasurably better presidents than Palin.

Should Pawlenty or Crist or Jeb Bush or any of the other leading Repubs announce they are considering running for president, they would easily be taken seriously. Palin would be laughed out of the room. And yet, McCain thinks she should be president should he be unable to filfull his term in office. How fucking hysterical!

McCain had only met Palin once, only spoken to her once before offering her the position - so it is clear he was not picking a VP based on the quality of his relationship with the person.

McCain in no way believes Palin more qualified than the other candidates on his VP shortlist - so it is clear he was not picking his VP based on their ability to be president.

So McCain picked a VP he thought could help him win. And what a gamble.

More specifically, it is a cheap political pander that will not help him win any votes he would not have gotten already. She soothes the conservative base, but they never would have voted for Obama anyway. She will not attract independent women or Hillary voters with her anti-woman, anti-family policies. She will not turn the tide in any of the swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania and Florida and Ohio the way Romney or Pawlenty could have.

This move is a desperate overreaction to the lack of success or traction McCain has on any of the issues that will determine votes this election. The strategy is cheap, pathetic, insulting, stupid and, most importantly, losing. What a moron.

So, the question is not whether Palin is more qualified to be president than Obama - and it's unanimous among honest, intelligent people that she isn't; even Palin doesn't think she is, as indicated when she said she's just a hockey mom from Alaska, so the chances of McCain asking her to be his running mate are slim to none. The real question is whether she's more qualified than any of the other reasonable candidates for Republican Vice President. Even I would vote for any of them before I would vote for her. Easily (well, maybe not Portman. it would be close.).

Condilicious Condi would have covered all the suspect classifications (female, black and suspected lesbian).  If Condi would have married Charlie Crist . . .   Last time we saw Charlie he was running to call off his wedding and join the Log Cabin Republicans. 

RELATED POSTS:  Sarah Polin Gets Call at 3:00 am - National Security Threat

                            Lesbians Are Going to Love McCain's VP

Trois noms semblent tenir la corde: Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty et Joe Lieberman (ancien colistier... d'Al Gore en 2000). Les trois ont leurs avantages, mais aussi de sérieux inconvénients (trop riche à un moment où les Américains se serrent la ceinture, trop jeune, trop pro-avortement...). Bref, aucun des trois ne sera parfait, et chacun sera contesté dès l'annonce de vendredi.

Ne semblent plus être dans la course: le jeune gouverneur de Louisiane, Bobby Jindal (d'origine indienne, mais très inexpérimenté) et Charlie Crist (gouverneur de Floride, état clé).

Côté démocrate, on semble assuré sinon d'emporter la présidentielle, au moins d'être (largement?) majoritaire au Congrès, et ainsi d'accroître les majorités gagnées en 2006. Notamment d'atteindre le chiffre magique de 60 sénateurs (ce qui permet de contourner certains blocages appelés filibusters)

Problème(s): le triomphe d'une année (2008) peut se transformer en un désastre deux ans plus tard (2010, comme ce fut le cas avec le raz de marée républicain de 1994). De même si on parle beaucoup de l'impopularité, abyssale, de Bush, le nouveau Congrès démocrate est, lui aussi, très impopulaire (entre 25 et 30% de satisfaits!)

Lauric Henneton

(Think Progress)

Chuck Todd's all, "Whatever, his quote unquote engagement will be off five minutes from now" and Andrea Mitchell's all, "Oh no you di'int!" and Joe Scarborough's all, "Oh yes he did!" and then, far away from there, Charlie Crist envisioned a penis, fondly.