It is therefore interesting to compare drivers’ lap times in the second phase of qualifying, with the time that they ultimately qualified with carrying race fuel. Although no two tours are the same, there is no real incentive to max out in Q2 and many factors go in to posting a time, we can at least speculate which drivers are potentially going longer into their first stint.

Looking at the front four:

Difference between Q2 time and Q3 time (seconds):

Hamilton: +1.250
Massa: +1.287
Kovalainen: +1.778
Raikkonen: +1.694

Now I don’t see Heikki threatening Lewis’s position in normal circumstances, but can we say that Kimi will go longer in to the race than Hamilton? If an extra lap of fuel costs 0.168 seconds per lap, then the fact that the Finn has gone an additional half-second slower than his own Q2 time respective to Hamilton’s is certainly interesting.

Also worth noting is that when interviewed immediately after the qualifying session Massa seemed to indicate that he was very happy with his lap and that he had made no mistakes, whilst Ron Dennis appeared to acknowledge that getting to the front in this session was paramount in the McLaren team’s thinking. I am going to stick my neck out and say Lewis is a touch lighter than his rivals.

So back Massa or Kimi for race victory then? Instead I have laid Hamilton at odds-on on the exchanges. Pole-sitters have won just three of the last nine races here, Massa is full of confidence and Kimi has to remain a threat on his past form around this circuit. With the challenging nature of the track, potential inclement weather and the possibility of a safety car, I am happy to take on anyone with the odds in my favour.

Vettel looks on super form and his confidence is high. The extra horsepower from the Ferrari unit will certainly be an advantage at Spa, whilst Vettel's performances in Asia at the end of last season underline his ability in the wet.

With the appearance of a safety car always likely, the possibility of an upset has to be on the cards. 200/1 was a headline grabbing price from SportingBet which has already gone, however 125/1 with each way terms (1/5th 1,2,3) remains available with PaddyPower, Stan James and Ladbrokes.

16/1 for a standalone podium is still available and a top three finish can't be ruled out completely, even without the turmoil caused by weather or the safety car.

The high attrition rate at the Spa-Francochamps circuit and the less-than-perfect reliability of the Ferrari engines makes a points-finish bet at just over Evens seem slightly less appealing.

Title: Belgian Grand Prix Data Sheet | Format: PDF | Filesize: 87.1kb

Un petit tour sur le site de Felipe Massa en espérant glaner quelques  infos sur les interviews qu’il a donne dernièrement au FAZ et a MARCA (je ne parle ni ne lis le teuton, et je n’ai pu trouver le texte de l’interview en espagnol sur le site de Marca) vient de me permettre de découvrir (peut-être?) un petit secret de Felipe dimanche dernier…

Dans ses news du 27, parlant de la course de dimanche dernier, il dit que sa stratégie agressive était fondée sur l’absence de SC… Ainsi donc il se pourrait que Felipe et Rob -Rob ne peut être tout a fait étranger a cette idée me semble t’il-  aient décidé de prendre McLaren a son propre piège. Les british futés ont certainement chargé, un peu trop, leurs monoplaces pour s’éviter tout risque lors d’une sortie, toujours imprévisible, de la Safety Car. Il faut rappeler que dans le paddock la question n’était pas de savoir si la SC allait sortir mais plutôt COMBIEN de fois elle allait sortir.

A la réflexion cette stratégie pourrait aussi avoir été celle de Kimi, sa position de challenger direct de Lewis –avec seulement 5 points de retard- lui dictant peut-être de calquer ses choix sur ceux du leader afin de ne pas prendre de gros risques. Stratégie peut-être aussi dictée par le risque connu qui existait que son moteur, comme celui de Felipe il y a 3 semaines, ne termine pas la course…

Sur ce point aussi Felipe nous apprend que Ferrari avait préféré prendre le risque de ne pas changer le moteur de Kimi plutôt que de prendre une sévère pénalité sur la grille…

Je traduis… puisque c’est tout ce que sais faire ;-)

« Pour ma part, j’étais heureux qu’il n’y ait pas eu de période de neutralisation pendant la course, car ma stratégie n’était pas fondée sur la sortie de la SC. Cette fois  j’avais choisi une stratégie plutôt agressive parce que j’avais une voiture très compétitive. Si vous choisissez une stratégie très agressive  et que vous n’êtes pas sûr de faire la pole  c’est toujours une situation potentiellement difficile car cette stratégie peut se retourner contre vous. Quand vous savez avoir une voiture rapide vous devez vraiment faire tout ce que vous pouvez pour obtenir cette pole car c’est la meilleure manière possible de commencer la course »

Moi j’achète cette version, et vous ?

Pictures of the Thursday

Pictures of the Wednesday

With this in mind, I am going to chance my arm on a couple of less-fancied drivers to finish in the points. Kazuki Nakajima and Sebastien Bourdais could both be described as outsiders even within their respective teams; but at the odds that are available, I believe that a case can be made for backing them this weekend. Certainly with the driver market about to move into top gear they both have a point to prove.

Nakajima’s ability to “survive” into the points prompted me to write this earlier in the season. There I highlighted that the street circuits of Monaco and Canada could well be the places to profit. The Japanese driver justified my support with a seventh place finish in the principality, followed by a retirement from ninth position in Montreal, having ran as high as second in the race. Since then he has again overcome the adversity of the British conditions to pick up points at Silverstone.

Back on another street circuit this weekend, Kazuki has actually posted his best qualifying result of the season: lining up in eleventh place. With his teammate just ahead of him in ninth – in a rare top ten appearance for the Williams – there is plenty to be hopeful about this weekend. Several firms go 9/4 about Nakajima picking up the three places that he needs to make it his fifth points scoring finish of the season. I’m happy to get involved with that.

Sebastien Bourdais is having a strong weekend. Whilst much of the attention has been focused on his teammate, the Frenchman (who has plenty of experience of street circuits from his Champ Car days) has quietly been getting on with the business of punching above his weight. Fourth in Practice 1 and third in Practice 3 paved the way for his first top-ten grid slot of the season.

It is a worry that he hasn’t managed to finish in the points since Albert Park, but at least it is a high-speed temporary track that he is encountering again this weekend. Critically the Toro Rosso that his team have rocked up with in Valencia would appear to be a different beast (bull?) to the one that we have seen before. There are still bits of 2/1 around for him to finish in the points.

Good luck.

Safety Car

According to my records we have only seen one Safety Car in Hungary in the last ten years (in 2006). On that occasion morning drizzle at the track saw the drivers racing on wet tyres. With the long range forecast (weather.com) predicting a dry weekend, I am surprised to see SkyBet go 5/6 either way on the Safety Car being deployed.

Lap of First Retirement

A spate of first lap retirements at the start of this season has seen this market shift downwards. For Sunday’s race Bet365 are offering the following odds:

Lap of First Retirement
Under 1.5 Laps @ 4/7
Over 1.5 Laps @ 5/4

Following Hockenheim, the average number of laps completed before the first of retirement in 2008 is seven. In the last ten years at the Hungaroring only three races have seen a retirement in the first two laps and on average 8.5 laps have been completed before the first driver begins the walk back to the pits. Have Bet365 got their prices wrong?

Honda

Jenson Button recorded his first (and so far only) win around here in a Honda and generally this is a circuit where the Japanese team have gone well. Since 2004 the team (both in the final year of BAR and as the factory outfit) have managed to place six cars in the points from eight attempts.

The Budapest circuit requires the cars to be set up with a significant amount of downforce and it is in this trim that we have probably seen the Honda to its best effect this season – sixth in Monaco and seventh in Canada – discounting the wet race at Silverstone.

Extrabet make both Honda drivers 5/1 shots to record a points-paying finish, or of course 5/2 coupled.

Title: Hungarian Grand Prix Data Sheet | Format: PDF | Filesize: 83.3kb

A partir daí, o que se viu foi todo mundo entrando no box menos Hamilton em uma tática estranha e com isso caiu para sexto após sua parada e Massa em segundo e com Nelsinho em primeiro ao arriscar tudo em uma parada só. Claro que Piquet Jr contou com a sorte, mas depois foi dono de uma pilotagem irretocável apenas sendo superado pela Mclaren do inglês.

Agora considerações:

1- Hamilton ainda não é um gênio e sim um grande piloto. Para mim Alonso é melhor que ele ainda 

2- Massa é um bom piloto só que a Ferrari levou de goleada da flecha prateada durante todo fim de semana.

3- esse fato de dois brasileiros no mesmo pódio (com Nelsinho em 2o e Massa em 3o), não acontecia desde 91 (nesta data Senna chegou em 1o e Piquezão em 3o).

A corrida foi essa:

O campeonato é esse:       

Até a Hungria(corrida chatérriiima)

informações: F1.com

Title: German Grand Prix Data Sheet | Format: PDF | Filesize: 80.4kb

Vía Racingpasion

Bola Extra
Parece que Hamilton ya está entrenándose para darnos otra nueva alegría:

• Oh nooo, Christ, s**t! (Times)

Gracias por el enlace Kentx.

Title: British Grand Prix Data Sheet | Format: PDF | Filesize: 85.9kb

Possibly not, as the one thing that I am afraid of is a Ferrari one-two. Since Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa became teammates they have shared six one-two finishes; none of which have seen a gap between them of more than six seconds.

The only way I would get involved in this market now is if for any reason I thought that a one-two was unlikely – namely if it was raining (which slightly increases the average winning margin too).

This got me looking at the other markets and my eye was drawn to SkyBet’s ‘Without the Big Six’ market. This is an outright market that excludes Raikkonen, Massa, Hamilton, Kovalainen, Kubica and Heidfeld. Following his impressive qualifying session Fernando Alonso is an odd-on shot. Is this right?

Magny-Cours is of course a home race for Renault. How much pressure were they under to mask their performance in qualifying with a light fuel load? The logical comparison would be Fernando Alonso’s home grand prix in Spain. There, a stellar qualifying performance saw him qualify second on the grid, but his true race pace had him pegged in sixth and falling into the clutches of Mark Webber (+1.7 seconds) before his untimely engine failure.

Lets look at the seven races so far this season and who has won the race without the big six:

2 x Win – Mark Webber
2 x Win – Jarno Trulli
1 x Win – David Coulthard
1 x Win – Fernando Alonso
1 x Win – Nico Rosberg

Interestingly Red Bull have been best-of-the-rest in three out of the last four races. In Turkey where Fernando Alonso took this accolade it was again Mark Webber who followed him home. We have already got David Coulthard covered with a points finish, but at 13/2 Mark Webber must be worth a shot with each-way terms available for those that are inclined.

Elsewhere an uneventful start to the Canadian GP has seen the average lap of the first retirement in 2008 jump up to 2.86 laps. Magny-Cours is a circuit where another clean start is possible: the average lap for the first retirement in the last ten years is a mammoth 10.5 laps. Bet365 are offering 6/4 that the first retirement will come during the second lap or later. This looks a value price to me, but beware that the last three races here at Magny-Cours have seen early retirements.

Nelson Piquet Jnr. has failed to complete five out of the seven races this season. He raced at Magny-Cours four times in GP2 and didn’t trouble the chequered-flag twice. Despite this he can be laid at odds-on to be classified in Sunday’s main feature. Well I certainly wouldn’t be backer.

Finally, there is some 4/5 available on Betfair that we won’t see the Safety Car deployed. With one outing here in the last ten years that would appear to be value, but with the FIA speculating that there could be thunderstorms during race-day (they predicted heavy rain for Saturday that failed to materialise) I am happy to pass it over. If it is still available at 2pm local time and there is blue sky above Nevers then I may reassess.

Whatever you fancy for tomorrow, good luck! If you spot any value anywhere or simply have a strong inclination for an outcome then please post in the comments.

Title: French Grand Prix Data Sheet | Format: PDF | Filesize: 85.6kb

Hamilton qualified six-tenths of a second faster than Kubica and nearly a second quicker than the nearest Ferrari. I believe that this, to some degree, has to be fuel-related. Martin Brundle remarked in ITV commentary that teams were expecting to have problems with the soft-compound Bridgestone tyre in the race and that it would only be viable for use in the latter stages once the track had rubbered-in. We know from Turkey that Hamilton can have problems with the softer tyre’s wear and on that occasion McLaren chose to switch him to a three-stop strategy to minimise the impact. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same thing again here in Canada.

Throw in the possibility of inclement weather, the track breaking up, the inevitable safety car periods, the crazy safety car pit lane rules and the groundhogs; there is no way I would want to be backing the Brit at that price.

After missing out on a big-priced points finish for Kazuki Nakajima in Monaco I don’t want to make the same mistake again. Full reasons here, but in short his qualifying performance doesn’t seem to hamper his ability to get his Williams in to the points. There is plenty of 5/2 available and possibly bigger on the exchanges.

Finally, I am going to take a punt on Sebastian Vettel steering his Toro Rosso in to the points from a pit-lane start. The pit lane exit in Montreal feeds out into the exit of turn two so hopefully he will be able to miss any first corner carnage. From there he will still need to negotiate his way through the pack, but a) Montreal is a circuit where passing is possible and b) I have already predicted that there will be a large number of retirements, potentially making his job easier.

The main rationale behind this bet though is that there remains a possibility of rain. Last time out in Monaco, Vettel managed to secure a fifth place finish in the extremely tricky conditions. This comes on the back of a fourth place finish in the rain in China and a supremely strong drive in the wet in Japan last year. 4/1 is currently available on the exchanges; the 120/1 for a podium is perhaps just stretching it a little!

Title: Canadian Grand Prix Data Sheet | Format: PDF | Filesize: 84.4kb

Well done to Adrian Sutil though, a great race. You've just had your Alesi moment... (the one that got Alesi his reputation, when after being overtaken by Senna he immediately took Senna back at the next corner, thus ensuring nobody ever questioned Alesi's driving skills from that moment on - rightly or wrongly). People will notice you now. Your career can only go up from here!

Well done Hamilton too, despite your self-inflicted early puncture. Coming back to earth a bit after last year are we? About time. Nice win though; shame about the safety car when you had a 40 second lead...

Title: Monaco Grand Prix Data Sheet | Format: PDF | Filesize: 87.1kb